Top Potential First-Round Shockers in the 2026 Men’s NCAA Tournament
Cinderella hasn’t shown up much lately. Only five double-digit seeds won in the first round of the 2025 men’s NCAA tournament, the Elite Eight was tied for the chalkiest in history, and the Final Four was just the second ever to feature all four No. 1 seeds. But that doesn’t mean the 2026 NCAA tournament is upset-proof. Here’s every matchup worth circling — ranked by BPI upset probability — if you’re trying to differentiate your bracket and win your pool.
🏀 The Top Giant Killers: Ranked by BPI Upset Probability
The highest upset probability in the entire 2026 NCAA tournament first round — and it’s not hard to see why. North Carolina’s star freshman Caleb Wilson (19.8 PPG, 9.4 RPG, projected top-5 NBA pick) is out for the season with a broken thumb. Without him, the Tar Heels’ efficiency numbers dropped noticeably in both 2-point percentage and offensive rebounding. VCU enters having won 16 of their last 17, with all eight rotation players hitting at least 18 threes this season and the 15th-highest free throw rate in the country. A balanced, aggressive, versatile attack against a shorthanded UNC squad. This is a real game.
Texas has lost five of their last six games and enters on a rough run. Scoring is not the problem — they rank 16th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency — but defense has been a persistent liability all season. If 7-footer Matas Vokietaitis can stay out of foul trouble (he’s had chronic issues), he could be decisive against a BYU attack that lost Richie Saunders to an ACL tear and has been inconsistent defensively. Note: Texas must first beat NC State in the First Four to get this matchup.
NC State lost seven of their last nine games — yet two years ago this exact program made a Final Four run as an 11-seed after stumbling to the regular-season finish line in the ACC. The 2026 version is a stronger offensive team than that 2024 squad and can keep pace with BYU on the scoreboard. The red flag is defense: the Wolfpack has allowed 87 points and nearly 11 threes per game over their last nine outings. BYU without Saunders still has AJ Dybantsa (projected No. 1 NBA pick, 28+ points in seven of his last games) and Robert Wright III (22.4 PPG in the final eight games). NC State’s 9th-best turnover rate and 10th-best three-point shooting (39%) give them a path. Note: this matchup only happens if NC State beats Texas in the First Four.
First Four impact on the 2026 NCAA tournament bracket: NC State lost to Texas in the First Four — so the West 11-vs-6 matchup is now Texas vs. BYU (37% upset chance). The BPI model also expected SMU to beat Miami (Ohio) and advance to face Tennessee at 25% upset probability. Track both games closely before locking in your bracket picks.
🏀 The 12-Seed Watch: Only One Has a Real Chance
High Point is the only 12-seed in the entire 2026 NCAA tournament field with at least a 20% upset chance — and this could be one of the highest-scoring first-round games on the slate. The Panthers are top five nationally in turnover rate at both ends of the court and score 21 points per game off miscues. The problem: nobody protects the ball better than Wisconsin. Guards John Blackwell and Nick Boyd have combined for 50 points per game over their last four outings. If High Point can’t force turnovers — their entire game plan — this matchup closes quickly. The classic 12-vs-5 upset formula, with a real structural obstacle.
BPI expects SMU to beat Miami (Ohio) in the First Four, but isn’t sold on the Mustangs going further against a Tennessee team that is the nation’s best offensive rebounding squad. BJ Edwards — SMU’s top defender — is returning from an ankle injury that cost him the last five regular-season games. Without him, the Mustangs went 1-4. With him, they’re top 25 in adjusted offensive efficiency and have wins over Texas A&M, North Carolina and Louisville. Boopie Miller (19.2 PPG, 41% from three) is one of the most dangerous scorers in the tournament. Tennessee is vulnerable to turnovers; SMU will need to win that battle to have any chance.
🏀 More First-Round Upsets to Monitor
2026 NCAA Tournament: Full First-Round Upset Probability Tracker
(11) South Florida vs. (6) Louisville — 19% | Thursday 1:30 p.m. ET
The highest over/under total on the first-round board. Mikel Brown Jr.’s back injury (missed final two regular-season games) is the real variable for Louisville. USF is 19-3 since late December with those three losses coming by a combined five points. The Bulls lead the country in second-chance points behind Izaiyah Nelson, and have two players with 100+ threes (Wes Enis and Joseph Pinion). Louisville makes 11.5 threes per game — 41% of their scoring. Expect fireworks regardless of the result.
(12) McNeese vs. (5) Vanderbilt — 19% | Thursday 3:15 p.m. ET
McNeese leads the nation in points off turnovers (22.3 per game). Vanderbilt’s backcourt of Tyler Tanner (19.2 PPG, projected first-round pick) and Duke Miles (back healthy after missing six games) takes excellent care of the ball. This is the same structural tension as High Point-Wisconsin — the giant killer’s biggest weapon directly contradicts the favorite’s greatest strength. Don’t discount McNeese; they were one of two 12-seeds to win in last year’s tournament.
(12) Akron vs. (5) Texas Tech — 18% | Friday 12:40 p.m. ET
JT Toppin’s season-ending ACL injury dropped Texas Tech’s defense from 24th to 119th nationally. The Red Raiders enter with three consecutive losses. Akron has won 10 straight and 19 of 20 entering the tournament, shooting 39% from three. They are the shortest team in the field — efficiency on offense and defending the three-point line will determine whether they can make this competitive.
(12) Northern Iowa vs. (5) St. John’s — 15% | Friday 7:10 p.m. ET
UNI would need to control tempo, hit threes and limit St. John’s to one shot per possession. The problem: the Red Storm is one of the nation’s leaders in second-chance points behind Zuby Ejiofor and Dillon Mitchell, and their preferred style — physical paint play — doesn’t play into Northern Iowa’s defensive identity of running teams off the three-point line. UNI got 6-6, 235-pound Tristan Smith back from injury in February; they need him. Hard matchup.
🏀 What About Miami (Ohio)?
The most polarizing team in the 2026 NCAA tournament went 31-0 in the regular season before losing to UMass in the MAC tournament quarterfinals — and still ended up as an 11-seed sent to Dayton’s First Four. The RedHawks would need to beat SMU on Wednesday, then face Tennessee (the nation’s top offensive rebounding team) with only a 10% upset chance according to BPI. That 339th-ranked strength of schedule is real. But so is 31-1, a top-two scoring offense nationally, and a chip on their shoulder after being the most disrespected team in the field. Pete Suder (14.8 PPG, 42% from three) and a roster that made 62% of their shots inside the arc will not go quietly.
